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Survivor Path

๐ŸŽƒ Halloween Edition data as of --
Your season-long guide: odds, model win %, and the pick order that keeps your best teams alive longest.

Week 2

Win % for every team, every remaining week โ€” model-based (Log5 + home field, from preseason power ratings) unless real market odds are in for that week. Rows are sorted by win% for the current week (highest first; bye teams sink to the bottom). Greyed cells are teams you've already used; โ˜… marks the suggested-path pick. The current week's column is outlined blue at 60%+ win probability, red below it.
Strong favorite Toss-up Underdog Bye
A heuristic season plan: each week it locks in whichever available team has the most to lose by waiting, so your strongest teams aren't stranded on a week with no good options left. It recalculates live from your actual picks โ€” treat it as a starting point, not an order.
Click a week below then pick a team in the "This Week" tab โ€” or use the quick-pick menus here. Once a team is used for any week, it's removed from every other week for the rest of the season.

Situational flag base rates

Historical reference behind the ๐Ÿšฉ situational flags โ€” league-wide base rates, not specific to this page's own matchups, and not used to compute any live prediction. Just context for how often each situation has actually correlated with an upset.
SituationGamesUpset rateLine expected
Underdog is still winless (2+ games in)3238%20%
Thursday game4229%20%
Underdog coming off a bye1932%22%
Underdog has 3+ more days of rest4127%20%
Underdog lost by 20+ the week before8926%19%
Favorite lost the week before17124%20%
Favorite coming off its bye366%18%
Weeks 15โ€“1813716%18%